Texas elections shaping up as high-stakes battle

AUSTIN (AP) — The career of the first Texas Republican speaker in modern times is on the line. So are the political futures of Barack Obama’s old classmate, a former Democratic gubernatorial contender and three long-serving Republicans in surprisingly tight races.

It may not have the pizazz of a presidential contest, but the battle over the Texas Legislature — which soon will have to redraw boundary lines for itself and the Texans in Congress — has produced unusually high interest, buckets of special interest money and a frenzied partisan showdown across the state.

“If you’re a state legislator right now you’re swimming in some pretty strong currents,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. “It’s making the political class very nervous. I think it makes it harder to know what’s going to happen come November.”

All 150 members of the state House are up for re-election this year. Sixteen of 31 state Senate seats are also on the ballot, seven of them contested. Barring an upset of epic proportions, Republicans won’t lose their majority in the Senate. But the Democrats are running competitive races for three Senate seats and could make their first net gain in that chamber in a decade.

There’s also a chance the Democrats, who hold no statewide offices and lost their legislative majorities years ago, could win back the House this year — and oust powerful Republican Speaker Tom Craddick.

Partisan shifts have been rare in the Texas Legislature. When Craddick became speaker after the 2002 elections, it was the first party-switch at the helm of the House since the Civil War era.

But the Democrats have whittled away at the once solid Republican House majority, which has gone from 88-62 in 2003 to 79-71 today. A five seat swing could put the Democrats back on top.

“For the first time in a long time I’m seeing some competence and some real determination among Democrats,” said Jeff Crosby, who is advising several Democrats in key House races this year. “We feel pretty damn good.”

Democrats point to the unprecedented turnout in their 2008 primaries — two million more voters than in the 2004 contest and more than double the number for the GOP primaries.

The party has also emerged from financial meltdown, thanks in large part to the millions Dallas trial lawyer Fred Baron has poured into Democratic races. Just since the 2006 elections, Baron and his wife, Lisa Blue, have contributed some $2 million to Democratic candidates and causes, records show.

But for the last decade, Texas Democrats — despite their often optimistic predictions — have come up short on Election Day, and their opponents predict that will happen again this year.

Republican pollster Mike Baselice, who conducts surveys for Republicans like Gov. Rick Perry, said most of the competitive races tilt toward the GOP — even those now held by Democrats.

“There’s always wishful thinking on the part of Democrats in this state,” Baselice said.

Either way, both sides agree the stakes are high and the excitement unusually intense this year. After the 2010 Census, lawmakers will have to redraw the district boundaries from which legislators and Texas members of Congress are elected. High interest in the presidential race also could have a significant impact.

There are two hot Senate races in the Houston area, one of them featuring Democrat Chris Bell, who ran for governor in 2006. The open seat, vacated by former Republican Sen. Kyle Janek operates under special election rules even though the contest falls on Election Day, Nov. 4.

In a neighboring Senate seat, longtime Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, is being challenged by Galveston attorney Joe Jaworski. The Democrat has a name that carries some heft in American political history: He’s the grandson of famed special Watergate prosecutor Leon Jaworski.

Insiders say the most competitive Senate race is in Fort Worth, where Republican Sen. Kim Brimer is facing perhaps the toughest race of his 20-year legislative career. The cigar-chomping businessman has taken a different tact this year, trying to knock his opponent, former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis, off the ballot over eligibility questions. The case has been ensnared in legal maneuvering.

“Kim Brimer is literally scared to death,” said Democratic strategist Matt Angle. “His only political strategy has been a legal strategy ... it looks like that will fail.”

It’s a strategy that has already failed for Republicans, who unsuccessfully tried to knock Craddick’s Democratic opponent off the ballot in Midland.

Craddick, who beat back two attempts to overthrow him, has a Democratic opponent in his Midland district for the first time in years. While not expected to lose the solidly Republican district, the powerful speaker is fighting mightily to be re-elected as leader of the House when the Legislature reconvenes in January.

A Democratic majority — or even a small-scale loss of some of his allies — could mean a new speaker will be elected to the next two-year term.

With two months left before the election, observers say they’ve learned to expect the unexpected in Texas politics.